Bir \u00dclkenin Kalk\u0131nmas\u0131nda N\u00fcfus Nas\u0131l Bir Etkiye Sahiptir? <\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya iktisat tarihi geleneksel ve modern olarak iki b\u00f6l\u00fcm halinde incelendi\u011finde ekonomik yap\u0131 ve n\u00fcfus aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve teknolojiye, sosyal ili\u015fkilere, co\u011frafyaya, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel-dinsel yap\u0131lara ko\u015fut olarak de\u011fi\u015fik etkile\u015fim bi\u00e7imlerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Geleneksel ekonomilerde kapital\/n\u00fcfus ve toprak\/n\u00fcfus oranlar\u0131, ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131, dinsel inan\u00e7lardan kaynaklanan kayg\u0131lar, k\u00f6leli\u011fe kadar uzanan bir d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn n\u00fcfus \u00fczerindeki etkisi s\u00f6z konusudur. Sanayi toplumlar\u0131nda ise insan haklar\u0131 paradigmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ile birlikte insan unsuru bir sermaye olarak alg\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f ve yukar\u0131daki unsurlar yerini yenilerine terk etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Modern toplumlarda b\u00fcy\u00fck kara ordular\u0131na gerek yoktur. D\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm topraklar sahiplerini bulmu\u015f oldu\u011fundan toprak\/n\u00fcfus oran\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmektedir ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ne n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 taraftar bulabilmekte, ne de yeni topraklar\u0131n \u00fcretime kat\u0131lmas\u0131 ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenen Ricardian s\u00fcre\u00e7 belirtmektedir. Bu nedenle, teknolojik geli\u015fmeye paralel olarak geleneksel ekonomilerin hemen t\u00fcm\u00fcnde problem olan kentlerin ve \u00fclkenin beslenebilmesi, d\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticaretindeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm nedeniyle (biraz da d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerinin tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00fcreten \u00fclkeler aleyhine d\u00f6nmesi ile) farkl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkileri ile \u00f6rg\u00fclenmi\u015ftir.
\nSanayi Devrimi sonras\u0131na gelinene de\u011fin Antik Yunan \u015fehir ekonomilerinde, feodal Avrupa’da ve Osmanl\u0131 ekonomisinde n\u00fcfus ve ekonomik yap\u0131 etkile\u015fim i\u00e7inde olmu\u015flard\u0131r. Teorisyenler bu ili\u015fkiye tutarl\u0131 teorik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar getirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131nda art\u0131k iktisat\u00e7\u0131 i\u00e7in sorun pratik geli\u015fmelere teorik bir a\u00e7\u0131klama getirebilmek \u015fekline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.
\n\u0130ktisat tarihindeki n\u00fcfus hareketli\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131nda geli\u015ftirilen ve kullan\u0131lan teori n\u00fcfus d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc (Demographic Transition Theory) teorisidir. Bu teoriye g\u00f6re n\u00fcfus hareketlili\u011fi tarihsel s\u00fcre\u00e7te d\u00f6rt temel a\u015famadan ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. \u0130lk a\u015fama y\u00fcksek do\u011fum ve \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131, ikinci a\u015fama \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015fama do\u011fum oranlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve son a\u015fama dura\u011fan bir n\u00fcfusu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Ba\u015fka bir \u015fekilde ifade etmek gerekirse N\u00fcfusun D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Teorisi, y\u00fcksek do\u011fum ve y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131 sonucunda n\u00fcfusun sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015famadan, y\u00fcksek do\u011fum ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131 ile temsil olunan h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u015famas\u0131na, oradan da do\u011fum ve \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu yava\u015f n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u015famas\u0131na gelinmesi olarak tan\u0131mlanabilir. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, ifade edilen d\u00f6rt ayr\u0131 a\u015famada ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmektedir
\nN\u00fcfus D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Teorisi’ne g\u00f6re hem geli\u015fmi\u015f, hem de azgeli\u015fmi\u015f uluslar bu a\u015famalar\u0131 farkl\u0131 zaman dilimlerinde ya\u015fam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin geli\u015fmi\u015fler kategorisine dahil olan Avrupa \u00fclkeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk a\u015fama 1800 \u00f6ncesine, ikinci a\u015fama 1800- 1860 d\u00f6nemine, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015fama 1860-1980 aras\u0131na ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015fama 1980 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelirken, azgeli\u015fmi\u015f uluslar i\u00e7in ilk a\u015fama 1900 \u00f6ncesine, ikinci a\u015fama 19001950 aras\u0131na, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015fama 1980-2000 aras\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmektedir. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015fama hen\u00fcz bir\u00e7ok azgeli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkede g\u00f6zlenmemi\u015ftir Ancak bu teorinin olu\u015fmas\u0131nda yol g\u00f6sterici olan s\u00f6z konusu n\u00fcfus trendlerinin neden bu \u015fekilde olu\u015ftu\u011fu farkl\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma\u00adn\u0131n konusudur.
\nC. Cipolla’ya g\u00f6re hem Ziraat Devrimi’nde (M\u00d6. 10.000), hem de Sanayi Devrimi’nde (1750-1850) d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunda bir patlama s\u00f6z konusudur ve bunlar de\u011fi\u015fik nitelikler g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6ncelikle devrimle yay\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in bunlar, d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcnde yayg\u0131nl\u0131k kazanan de\u011fi\u015fmelerdir. \u0130kinci olarak, bunlar son derece yo\u011fun ve b\u00fcy\u00fck boyutlu de\u011fi\u015fmelerdir. Her iki devrimde de n\u00fcfus adeta kontrolden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f\u00e7as\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu patlamalar mevcut denge mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k i\u015flememesinden do\u011fmu\u015f say\u0131labilir. Bozulan eski denge yerine yenisi yerle\u015fineeye kadar ge\u00e7en zaman i\u00e7inde, n\u00fcfus kontrolden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr (CipolIa, 1980: 86). Ziraat Devrimi sonucunda n\u00fcfusun yerle\u015fikle\u015fmesi, fazla n\u00fcfusun beslenebilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli \u00fcr\u00fcn fazlas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve insan\u0131n do\u011fa ile olan ili\u015fkisinin farkl\u0131 \u015fekillerde geli\u015fti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.
\nSanayi Devrimi ve n\u00fcfus ili\u015fkisi sonraya b\u0131rak\u0131lmak \u00fczere, Antik Yunan’ a gelene de\u011fin dinsel etkiler alt\u0131nda kalan toplumlar\u0131n, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 benimsedikleri ve n\u00fcfus ile ekonomi aras\u0131nda do\u011frusal bir ili\u015fki kuramad\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Musevilik \u00e7ocu\u011fu olmayan kad\u0131n\u0131 hor g\u00f6ren ve kad\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, talihin kad\u0131nlara musallat edebilece\u011fi bir zillet olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, \u0130ncil birinci n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 desteklemi\u015ftir. Protestanizmle birlikte bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmam\u0131\u015f ve ayn\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce devam etmi\u015ftir. \u0130slam Dini de fazla n\u00fcfusa bir sorun olarak bakmam\u0131\u015f ve de\u011fi\u015fik hadislerde n\u00fcfusun artmas\u0131 yolunda tavsiyelerde bulunulmu\u015ftur Bunlar\u0131n pratikteki yans\u0131mas\u0131 n\u00fcfusun \u00f6ncekine oranla daha fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bunun toplumlar \u00fczerinde bir iktisadi bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmama nedeni kapal\u0131 \u00fcretim tarz\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011fu ekonomilerde, toprak\/emek oran\u0131nda, topra\u011f\u0131n temel \u00fcretim fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak n\u00fcfustaki her art\u0131\u015fa cevap vermesi ve insan ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, talebin artarak\u00e7e\u015fitlenmesine olanak vermeyecek derecede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131nda aranmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ticaretin ve yayg\u0131n m\u00fcbadeleye izin verecek d\u00fczeyde pazar\u0131n ve paran\u0131n bulunmay\u0131\u015f\u0131 resmi tamamlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.
\nAntik Yunan site devletlerinde n\u00fcfusun ekonomiye bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00fcretim yap\u0131lacak yeterli miktarda toprak bulunmamas\u0131ndan (co\u011frafi zorlama) dolay\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda imdada kolonizasyon ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret yoluyla gerekli maddeleri sa\u011flama yeti\u015fmi\u015ftir. Topraklar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve verimsiz olmas\u0131, baz\u0131 ailelerin \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve hatta baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hi\u00e7 topra\u011fa sahip olmamalar\u0131 sonucunda y\u00fckselen sosyal tansiyon kolonizasyonu beraberinde getirdi Korent ve Atina gibi ithal mallar\u0131na gittik\u00e7e daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale gelen siteler kolonilerden ald\u0131klar\u0131 mallar-hammadde ler kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda mamul maddeler ihra\u00e7 etmek yoluyla ayakta kalabilmi\u015flerdir Kimi zaman ise fazla n\u00fcfus ana siteyi ve kolonileri korumak i\u00e7in gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Fazla n\u00fcfusun bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmada Eflatun, yeni siteler kurularak fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6\u00e7men haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesini isterken, Aristo Malthusyen bir tutumla m\u00fclkiyetin de\u011fil ama n\u00fcfusun s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi \u00fczerinde durmu\u015ftur
\nRoma \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131 karakterinin de gere\u011fi olarak h\u0131zl\u0131 bir n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve k\u00f6lelerin \u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na ek olarak ithalat\u00e7\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 ile karakterize edilebilir. R. Cameron’a g\u00f6re Roma Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 (Pax Romana) d\u00f6neminde t\u00fcm imparatorlu\u011fun n\u00fcfusu 60 ile 100 milyon aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmektedir. Marcus Aurelius zaman\u0131ndaki (M\u00d6. 180) n\u00fcfus Julius Ceasar (M\u00d6. 44) zaman\u0131nda iki kat\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n temelindeki dinamik, Roma Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n ticaret yollar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcvenli\u011fe ek olarak Roma’n\u0131n Afrika ve Asya’daki verimli topraklar \u00fczerindeki egemenli\u011fi olarak belirtilebilir. N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ko\u015fut olarak zanaatkarlar\u0131n ya\u015fam standard\u0131 da y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Hatta C. Clark’a g\u00f6re tipik bir \u00f6zg\u00fcr Romal\u0131 zanaatkar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek \u00fccreti 1850 \u0130ngiltere’ sindeki bir i\u015f\u00e7inin \u00fccretine yak\u0131n olmaktad\u0131r
\nRoma’n\u0131n k\u00f6leci \u00fcretim sistemi, sava\u015flar ve zirai \u00fcretim aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan Romal\u0131 k\u00f6yl\u00fcleri h\u0131zla tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131na irmekte, maliyetleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekte ve marjinal k\u00f6le maliyeti marjinal k\u00f6le veriminden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece ekonomideki k\u00f6le arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lmaktayd\u0131. Topraklar\u0131n marjinal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015fmas\u0131 bir yandan k\u00f6le arz\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckenmesi ile sonu\u00e7lan\u0131rken h\u0131zla yok olan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Romal\u0131 \u00e7ift\u00e7iler d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen tah\u0131l\u0131n rekabetine kar\u015f\u0131 koyamam\u0131\u015flar, bor\u00e7lanma yoluyla artan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkilerine ek olarak, devletin artan savunma ve ithalat maliyeti ekonomik yap\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. Koloni sisteminin geli\u015ftirilip, Romal\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n ve k\u00f6lelerin bir kimlik de\u011fi\u015fimine u\u011frayarak Orta\u00e7a\u011f’\u0131n serfli\u011fini olu\u015fturmalar\u0131 bilinen ama incelenmesi ayr\u0131 bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 gerektirecek kadar da karma\u015f\u0131k bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir
\nRoma \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu’nun y\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan Orta\u00e7a\u011f’\u0131n sonuna de\u011fin, n\u00fcfus hareketlerinin incelenmesi, n\u00fcfus ile ekonomik yap\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirtilerini ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Orta\u00e7a\u011f tarih\u00e7isi M. M. Postan Orta\u00e7a\u011f n\u00fcfus hareketlerini \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde ele almaktad\u0131r. a) Erken Orta\u00e7a\u011flarda n\u00fcfus a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 kararl\u0131d\u0131r. b) 10. ve ll. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan 13. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru genelde artan bir n\u00fcfus s\u00f6z konusudur. c) 14. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan 16. y\u00fczy\u0131la kadar \u00f6nce azalan, sonra dalgalanan ve 15. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine giren bir n\u00fcfus g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Burada \u00f6nemli olan Postan’\u0131n n\u00fcfus hareketlerini a\u00e7\u0131klarken, n\u00fcfus de\u011fi\u015fmeleri ile genel olarak ekonomik geli\u015fme, \u00f6zel olarak da ticaretin geni\u015flemesi ve geli\u015fmesi aras\u0131nda kurmak istedi\u011fi neredeyse birebir ili\u015fkidir Postan’\u0131n Orta\u00e7a\u011f n\u00fcfus hareketleri ve ekonomik yap\u0131 aras\u0131nda kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ili\u015fkiyi H. J. Habakkuk ve D. North’da da bulmak olanakl\u0131d\u0131r. Habakkuk’a g\u00f6re 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l \u00f6ncesi \u0130ngiliz tarihinde g\u00f6zlemlenen fiyatlardaki, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki, yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki, ger\u00e7ek \u00fccretlerdeki ve g\u00f6\u00e7lerdeki uzun d\u00f6nemli hareketler n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fmeler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilmi\u015ftir. Artan n\u00fcfus, y\u00fckselen fiyatlar, y\u00fckselen tar\u0131msal karlar, n\u00fcfusun \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ek gelirler, sanayinin aleyhine d\u00f6nen ticaret hadleri anlam\u0131na gelir D. North ve R. Thomas’a g\u00f6re de, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticareti art\u0131rd\u0131. Artan ticaret ise b\u00f6lgesel ve b\u00f6lgeleraras\u0131 pazar\u0131n kurulmas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta b\u00fcy\u00fcyen manor ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna gelindi\u011finde ilkin manorda azalan verimler, ikincil olarak ise n\u00fcfusun manor ekonomisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti North ve Thomas’a g\u00f6re sonu\u00e7ta, n\u00fcfus de\u011fi\u015fmesi d\u0131\u015fsal bir fakt\u00f6r olarak toprak\/emek oran\u0131n\u0131 bozdu. Bozulan bu oran fiyatlar yoluyla ekonomideki temel de\u011fi\u015fimlerin nedeni oldu N\u00fcfusun kendi dinamikleri ile art\u0131p azalmas\u0131 yan\u0131nda iklim de\u011fi\u015fimi, veba, yang\u0131nlar ve sava\u015flar gibi d\u0131\u015fsal fakt\u00f6rler alt\u0131nda da say\u0131sal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fmesi, bu de\u011fi\u015fim sonucunda yine \u00fcretim t\u00fcketim-b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde meydana gelen de\u011fi\u015fimlerin bunlar\u0131 izlemesi s\u00f6z konusu olmaktad\u0131r. Nitekim artan n\u00fcfus, artan talep, artan ticaret, para ve pazar ekonomisinin geni\u015flemesi, kentle\u015fmenin artmas\u0131, yeni toplumsal s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 ve kadim feodal ili\u015fkilerin bunlara kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalmayarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeleri zincirleme bir etki ile feodalizmin sonunu haz\u0131rlad\u0131
\nOsmanl\u0131 Devleti’nde ise kurulu\u015f d\u00f6nemi olan 14. y\u00fczy\u0131ldaki iktisadi durgunluk ortam\u0131nda n\u00fcfusun, k\u0131tl\u0131klar, salg\u0131nlar ve sava\u015flar nedeniyle \u00e7ok az oldu\u011fu bilinmektedir. Bunun en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesi mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fckt\u00fcr. Zira \u00fcretimde bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerektiren hi\u00e7bir geli\u015fmenin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildi\u011fimiz bu d\u00f6nemde n\u00fcfus ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla talep, yukar\u0131da belirtilen neden\u00ad[erden dolay\u0131 toplam arz\u0131n \u00e7ok gerisindeydi. Bu nedenle 14. y\u00fczy\u0131lda Anadolun\u00fcfusunun 4-5 milyon dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu tahmin edilebilir 1500’l\u00fc y\u0131llar i\u00e7in F. Braudel ve \u00d6. L. Barkan’\u0131n hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re bug\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda 12-13 milyon insan ya\u015famaktad\u0131r. Barkan’a g\u00f6re 16. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru ise devletin sahip oldu\u011fu b\u00fct\u00fcn topraklarda n\u00fcfus en az\u0131ndan 30-35 milyona ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Braudel’in ise ayn\u0131 y\u0131llar ba\u011flam\u0131nda ileri s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011fu rakam 16 milyondur. Bu nedenle Braudel’ e g\u00f6re Barkan’ \u0131n tahminleri biraz iyimser tahminler olarak dikkati \u00e7ekmektedir 17. ve 18. y\u00fczy\u0131llar i\u00e7in yeterli veriler bulunmamakla birlikte yaln\u0131zca Anadolu’da erkeklerin say\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir say\u0131mda n\u00fcfus 7-7,5 milyon dolay\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1844’deki bir say\u0131mda ise t\u00fcm \u00fclkenin 36 milyon dolay\u0131nda, yaln\u0131zca Anadolu’nun 11 milyon dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bulunmu\u015ftur. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 16. ve 20. y\u00fczy\u0131llar aras\u0131nda Osmanl\u0131 n\u00fcfusunun dura\u011fan bir nitelik g\u00f6stermesidir Bu dura\u011fanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n nedeni \u00f6zellikle 1683 sonras\u0131nda ba\u015flayan Osmanl\u0131 toprak kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve geleneksel ekonomilerde n\u00fcfusun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n biraz da Osmanl\u0131n\u0131n uygulam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrg\u00fcn politikas\u0131 sonucundaki hareketlili\u011fine ba\u011flanabilir. H. \u0130nalc\u0131k imparatorlu\u011fun n\u00fcfus hareketlili\u011fini, Osmanl\u0131n\u0131n reayaya mali kayg\u0131larla da verdi\u011fi \u00f6nem sonucunda kendi topraklar\u0131na yerle\u015filmesine izin verdi\u011fi, do\u011fudan bat\u0131ya s\u00fcrekli bir g\u00f6\u00e7 hareketinin imparatorluk n\u00fcfusunu karakterize edebilece\u011fi ve bunun zaman zaman sorunlara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131, merkezi otoritenin gerek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc durumlarda s\u00fcrg\u00fcn politikas\u0131n\u0131n uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ve yine zaman zaman ba\u015f g\u00f6steren isyanlar\u0131n n\u00fcfus \u00fczerinde olumsuz bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu \u015feklinde nitelendirmektedir
\nSanayi Devrimi d\u00f6nemi Avrupa n\u00fcfusu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f ve ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131nda y\u00fckselme ile nitelenmektedir Avrupa n\u00fcfusu 1750′ den 1950 y\u0131l\u0131na kadarki 200 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrede yakla\u015f\u0131k 240 milyondan 1 milyara y\u00fckselirken ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 900 milyondan 3 milyar dolaylar\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir
\nJ. Habakkuk’a g\u00f6re Avrupa’da Sanayi Devrimi’nden \u00f6nce uzun bir m\u00fcddet n\u00fcfus, gerek do\u011fum oran\u0131 ve gerekse \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek olmakla birlikte gayet istikrarl\u0131yd\u0131. Kaba do\u011fum oran\u0131 ile \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 binde 30 dolay\u0131ndayd\u0131. Do\u011fum oran\u0131ndaki fazlal\u0131k, istisnai durumlarda harp, salg\u0131n hastal\u0131k ve k\u0131tl\u0131ktan meydana gelen \u00f6l\u00fcmleri kar\u015f\u0131lamaktayd\u0131. 18. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonun_ da ve 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda iktisadi kalk\u0131nma h\u0131zlan\u0131nca, bu ilkel istikrar, bu end\u00fcstri \u00f6ncesi denge, \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131nda bir de\u011fi\u015fme sonucunda bozulmu\u015ftur Ancak yine de Habakkuk’a g\u00f6re s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemdeki n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca sanayile\u015fme ile a\u00e7\u0131klamak olanakl\u0131 de\u011fildir. Nitekim t\u00fcm Avrupa’da sanayile\u015fme s\u00fcrecine girilmezden \u00f6nce de ba\u015fka fak\u00adt\u00f6rlerden dolay\u0131 n\u00fcfusun art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131nmaktayd\u0131. End\u00fcstrile\u015fmede pek ileri gidemeyen Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde bile, h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen kuvvetler vard\u0131 ve meydana gelen art\u0131\u015f kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131na gem vurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kar\u015f\u0131 kuvvetler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu kuvvetler, end\u00fcstrile\u015fmi\u015f toplumlarda da, ilk a\u015famada, end\u00fcstrile\u015fmenin n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik edici nitelikleri, sonraki safhalar\u0131nda ise kontrol edici nitelikleri olarak harekete ge\u00e7tiler <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bir \u00dclkenin Kalk\u0131nmas\u0131nda N\u00fcfus Nas\u0131l Bir Etkiye Sahiptir? D\u00fcnya iktisat tarihi geleneksel ve modern olarak iki b\u00f6l\u00fcm halinde incelendi\u011finde ekonomik yap\u0131 ve n\u00fcfus aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve teknolojiye, sosyal ili\u015fkilere, co\u011frafyaya, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel-dinsel yap\u0131lara ko\u015fut olarak de\u011fi\u015fik etkile\u015fim bi\u00e7imlerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Geleneksel ekonomilerde kapital\/n\u00fcfus ve toprak\/n\u00fcfus oranlar\u0131, ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131, dinsel inan\u00e7lardan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1403,1406],"tags":[1685,4111,2922,1622,1526,4113,1582,4112],"class_list":["post-1450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-odevler","category-sosyal-bilgiler-odevleri","tag-avrupa","tag-bir-ulkenin-kalkinmasinda-nufus-nasil-bir-etkiye-sahiptir","tag-nufus","tag-ortacag","tag-osmanli","tag-roma","tag-sanayi-devrimi","tag-ziraat-devrimi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1450\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.islamidavet.com\/kutuphane\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}